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9/3/2007 第三十六周第三十六周 2007年的第三十六周，周一晨。2007.09.03-2007.09.09。 一直依靠闹钟才能醒来，今早睁开眼睛时，破例地天光已经弥漫整个屋子，闹钟还没响。怕是闹钟出了故障误了时间，看时间却正好离设定的起床还有三分钟。笑，天意使我起，便抖擞了全身精神，去冲澡。发现外面的地面依然湿漉漉的，树叶在雨后早晨显得特别的绿，特别的抖擞， 早晨才有的金色阳光洒在上面，整个世界都灿烂了。天山交接处的云还保持着几日来雨天里一样的墨绿素雅，中天的云已经稀稀朗朗，好一个秋日早晨，开始工作了^^ 8/25/2007 Flying DutchmanFlying Dutchman “加勒比海盗”里，小铁匠把心挖出来，保管到盒子里，变成了不死人，代之的是要永远航行在海上，直到世界末日。 假如要让你作为飞翔荷兰人的船长，你愿意么? 我才开始觉得没有什么不好的，如果惩罚是非要让你不断航海，那我正好喜欢大海和航行啊，如果终极一生是日复一日的单调，你永远可以用你自己的好奇心去创造乐趣啊，比如说，世界有这么多的已知的和未知的知识，天文地理，历史政治，文史哲经，数学物理，电子计算机…每一种已知的知识都足以让你的好奇心持续很多年，而每一个领域的未知更是无限，你可以慢慢的钻研。人，只要心还年轻，只要好奇人还在，就永远不会老去，也永远不会觉得活的乏味。那些终日说自己无聊，凄凄惨惨戚戚的人，多半是放弃了自己内心，任之垂垂老去。 但是有人反问，假如你爱的人和爱你的人、亲人在你的眼前一个一个老去然后归去，你还能独存于世，继续新的人生？我当即无言了。圣经里说，因为上帝责怪亚当吃了善恶果，所以让人类不再永生，而必须死，假如每个人都可以不死，假如人的束缚不再那么坚固，这个世界会有更多美好吧。于形而上的感情，我还没法尽然理解，父母亲人去世，一般为儿子女的，伤痛过后还是在好好地活着。而男女之爱，是传说中的那样神圣么？我不是一个反爱情论着，也对爱情依然抱有想象。这些天看了一个电影<这个夏天不需要爱情>，说的是人世间有太多的虚情假意，情人间有多少没有以真情倾入，他们说爱情不需要，实际上却是更深层的对真正爱情的渴求。看来这个问题不简单，幸好我没必要回答这个问题，因为我是必死的。
勿过于怀旧。 我坚信，当一个人开始不断回忆过去的时候，他就开始老去了。 中国人太过于怀念过往了。大概是历史的沉重使然，满目充斥的都是怀旧思故的诗词，这跟中国人不注意保护历史的古迹形成了鲜明的对比，每次更朝换代，胜利者都会对前朝进行大肆的屠杀和破坏，与此不同的是，欧洲人虽然也有很深的历史，却把遗迹保留得很好，现实里就可以触摸到历史，没必要凭借描述历史的文字来想象和怀念。在中国，历史的美好，留下的只是文字里的美丽，“五步一楼，十步一阁；廊腰缦回，檐牙高啄”的阿房宫，很快就被“楚人一炬,可怜焦土”了，更甚的是，杜牧非要留下这么美好的文字，勾引着世人无限的想象和怀念，即便是大气豪放的李白，那句“西风残照,汉家陵阙”一下子把我们的思维和想象拉入了悠远的历史长河。这种气质慢慢的沁入中国人的思想，每个人都沾染这种具有忧伤美感，却又与人类天生的心律吻合的时候，所有人有了这种怀旧心理，不管是对儿时的怀念，还是对所离开的故土的怀念，对逝去的恋情的怀念… 现实生活的艰难，也让人更加注重对过往生活的修饰。美国是个没有长久历史的国家，那里只是一块全新的寄托着无限梦想的热土，一个人人可以追求自己自由和幸福的疆域，人人眼睛都向着前方，充满着激情地规划着未来，相对中国这种有历史包袱的国家来说，他们更轻松，更有活力，朝气蓬勃。 个人更加是这样的，虽然过往的生活经验是人很重要的组成部分，但是过去的已然过去，今是而昨非，过去的生活构成你丰富的人生经验，让我们更成熟，更好的生活，而不是负担，成为阻碍我们继续追求美好生活的障碍。 怒放的生命今天晚上去打羽毛球，5点下班到体育馆。馆里新入社员有活动，告知要6点半才能开始打。 于是在旁边看着，他们在地板上摆了一个颇为壮观的“多米诺骨牌”，骨牌被摆成各种形状，沿着将要被推到的方向，有花朵，各种图案，有山峰，最中间是一个看似很雄威的三星LOGO.他们还在摆骨牌的时候，和一个新入社员搭讪，看样子很年轻的，以为也是本科进来的，我准备和陌生人练习一下自以为练习得还不错的韩文，结果刚一开口说话，他就用英文回答我,看来他是他是听懂了，可是我的口音明显太异常，他立刻断定我是外国人所以想都没想就用英文。我奇怪，一般韩国的本科毕业生是不会对自己的英文有自信的，所以也不会怎么开口用英文。结果聊了一会说已经博士毕业了。更奇怪，以前的小组新入一个人，样子很像已经博士毕业了，可只是本科，今天碰到的人才本科生的样子可是已经doctor了，看来有的人老得快，有的人老得慢，这些源于生活的雕刻，也源于心理的状态吧。 骨牌在六点的时候终于被推到了，骨牌移动着，像宿命一样，一块压倒另外一块，所到之处，把所有用时间和心思垒砌起来的美丽和精致，雄伟都统统毁掉。当骨牌移动到场地中央最宏伟的那个三星LOGO图案时候，阵势可谓排山倒海无可阻挡，顷刻之间，精心建立的三星LOGO就被夷为一滩平地。这个时候人群在欢呼着拍掌，我隐隐听到了一个画外音“三星就是这样在人们的欢呼雀跃里瞬间崩塌的$#@$%
打羽毛球的时候，竟然发现很多人会说中文，今天运气挺好的，没有碰到那种不管你听懂与否，不断对你说一大堆韩文的人。都还挺照顾人的，不是说英文就是说中文，虽然都很不流利。后来碰到一个认识的朋友，他在中国呆了6年，于是一起打球。一些四十来岁的男人，还能身轻如燕的打球，跳跃，没看出身上有赘肉，也丝毫不露出沉重的步子，很有点羡慕。于我，生命已经过去了23年，以后的23年，将是人生的一个盛世期。现在生活开始慢慢展开，逐渐上升而趋于平缓。人在20岁出头的时候，脸上的气质和面貌状态不会有太大的出入，而不同的人按不同的路径再走过二十多年，直至45岁，人和人之间将会完全迥异，45岁的男人，有的还能身轻如燕，有的已经有了比孕妇还大的肚子，有的满脸写着风霜，有的却显着成熟的坚毅和稳重，有的依然朝气蓬勃，有的却已身心俱老，不管你愿不愿意，你选择过的生活方式会一条一条地刻在你的脸上，一笔一笔地给你记上。 怒放的生命。--汪峰。 曾经多少次跌倒在路上， 曾经多少次折断过翅膀。 如今我已不再感到彷徨， 我想超越这平凡的生活。 我想要怒放的生命！ 就像飞翔在辽阔的天空， 就像穿行在无边的旷野， 拥有挣脱一切的力量。
曾经多少次失去方向， 曾经多少次扑灭了梦想， 如今我已不再感到迷茫， 我要我的生命得到解放； 我想要怒放的生命， 就像矗立在彩虹之巅， 就像穿行在璀璨的星河， 拥有超越平凡的力量。 8/18/2007 玻璃之墙——蜜蜂和苍蝇的不同命运玻璃之墙——蜜蜂和苍蝇的不同命运 发信站: 两全其美网 (Thu Aug 16 21:42:14 2007), 本站(lqqm.net)
如果你把六只蜜蜂和同样多只苍蝇装进一个玻璃瓶中，然后将瓶子平放，让瓶底朝着窗户，会发生什么情况？ 你会看到，蜜蜂不停地想在瓶底上找到出口，一直到它们力竭倒毙或饿死；而苍蝇则会在不到两分钟之内，穿过另一端的瓶颈逃逸一空——事实上，正是由于蜜蜂对光亮的喜爱，由于它们的智力，蜜蜂才灭亡了。 蜜蜂以为，囚室的出口必然在光线最明亮的地方；它们不停地重复着这种合乎逻辑的行动。对蜜蜂来说，玻璃是一种超自然的神秘之物，它们在自然界中从没遇到过这种突然不可穿透的大气层；而它们的智力越高，这种奇怪的障碍就越显得无法接受和不可理解。 那些愚蠢的苍蝇则对事物的逻辑毫不留意，全然不顾亮光的吸引，四下乱飞，结果误打误撞地碰上了好运气；这些头脑简单者总是在智者消亡的地方顺利得救。因此，苍蝇得以最终发现那个正中下怀的出口，并因此获得自由和新生。 上面所讲的故事并非寓言，而是美国密执安大学教授卡尔·韦克转述的一个绝妙的实验。韦克是一个著名的组织行为学者，著有《组织的社会心理学》等书。 韦克总结到："这件事说明，实验、坚持不懈、试错、冒险、即兴发挥、最佳途径、迂回前进、混乱、刻板和随机应变，所有这些都有助于应付变化。" 他进一步说："我从大企业中所认识到的最重要的事情，就是当每人都遵循规则时，创造力便会窒息。"这里的规则也就是瓶中蜜蜂所坚守的"逻辑"，而坚守的结局是死亡。许多大企业都迫切想知道，怎样才能使自己变得更富活力、更有创造性？ 这样的问题之所以急迫，是因为管理模糊性、管理不确定性、管理变革，业已成为当今企业面临的头号任务。不确定性已经并将长期成为折磨企业的一种"慢性疾病"：比如， 许多公司已停止印发组织结构图了，因为它几乎刚刚出来就会变得过时。在高科技企业，人人都知道，哪怕只预测几个月后的技术趋势都是一件浪费时间的徒劳之举。如果你对混沌理论有一点点认识的话，你会懂得世界既不可知，也不可预测。过去的企业好像一条悠哉游哉的豪华游轮，而现在的企业则好像波浪滔天的大海里的一只独木舟。 但这样说也不是要鼓励我们对世界的悲观看法。韦克的观点是，对付不确定性的办法，是在瞬变时刻赋予事物以合理性，就像上述实验中的苍蝇一样。这意味着，面对趋于复杂的世界，如果你想使之成理（sensemaking），就必须拥有随机性的智慧而不是教条式的智慧，如布拉多印第安人通过炙烤鹿骨来决定狩猎的走向，如此方可称为真正的智慧。 为什么这样讲？由于狩猎是布拉多印第安人千百次进行的一项活动，他们得以积累丰富的有关猎物、追踪、天气和地形的经验。通常情况下，他们会依靠狩猎队伍中经验丰富的猎手的知识和智力进行判断；然而在外界环境的变数加大或遭遇其他特殊情况时，布拉多印第安人便会把经验搁置一旁，转而求助于非逻辑性的"魔法"。从现代的理性人的观念来看，这样做简直荒唐可笑，但布拉多印第安人的魔法却带来了一些超出经验的新事物，使狩猎最终得以成功。魔法为其固定的狩猎模式引入了一个随机的变数，狩猎的战术因此不会墨守成规，避免了由于一味遵从经验而可能造成的无效追逐，这也就是我们常说的"因以往的成功经验而导致的失败"。智者如蜜蜂往往正是因经验而陷入死地。 Fed Cuts Discount Rate（form WSJ)Fed Cuts Discount Rate to 5.75%,
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| Barron's Michael Santoli says the Fed's discount rate cut is largely a symbolic gesture, but it could mean that a federal funds rate cut won't come before the next scheduled FOMC meeting. |
William Poole, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and a voting FOMC member this year, didn't participate in the emergency meeting. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher voted in place. A spokesman for Mr. Poole said the call conflicted with a long-scheduled dinner meeting at the University of Arkansas. (Mr. Poole delivered a speech in Little Rock this morning.) "President Poole was concerned that failure to appear at the dinner meeting might have been noted, which could have led to speculation about the possibility that the FOMC was holding an unscheduled meeting," the spokesman said.
Mr. Poole expressed his opposition to rate cuts on Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg Television. "There's no need for the Federal Reserve, unless there's some sort of calamity taking place, to make a decision before the next meeting," he said.
Six Days Since Fed's Last Meeting
As a sign of how rapidly the Fed's view of the outlook has changed, the meeting came just six days after the committee met last Friday and didn't discuss a rate cut, but merely agreed to a statement explaining the Fed's more aggressive open market operations.
While today's statement affirms the Fed's view that growth will remain "moderate", the Fed sees that outlook in jeopardy危险. It makes no mention of inflation, the primary focus of the Fed's concern for the last year, implying that it now considers a rate cut more likely than a rate increase.
The nature of the release of the intermeeting statement altering its perception of risks was unprecedented. Since the Fed began releasing statements in 1994, it has only issued one between meetings when it also changed interest rates.
Besides the half-percentage-point discount rate cut to 5.75%, the Fed announced a change in the Reserve Banks' practice "to allow term financing for as long as 30 days, renewable by the borrower."
The Fed said the changes will remain in place until the Fed "determines that market liquidity has improved materially."
Providing 'Psychological Impact'
Softening its stance on intermeeting action, along with the cut in discount rates and the statement about growth risks, the Fed is aiming "to provide as much psychological impact as possible," said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson Associates, the research arm of money market broker ICAP. "Without backing away from the principles they've outlined, they want to show as much support as possible."
Banks have resisted borrowing at the discount window because its rate, generally a percentage point above the federal funds rate, "smacks of desperation," Mr. Crandall said. "The discount window has a tremendous stigma恶名声. [The Fed] hopes to chip away at that" and make borrowing there seem like a more reasonable business decision.
Though the discount rate is often seen as symbolic, it can be a precursor of the Fed's intentions for its primary vehicle, the federal funds target, which has stood at 5.25% for more than one year. However, economists said Friday's discount move probably means no intermeeting cut in the federal funds rate in the near term.
"The discount rate cut also means no funds rate cut today, very near term, and the market had been looking for that," wrote David Ader, economist at RBS Greenwich Capital.
Still, given that until now the Fed has maintained an official anti-inflation bias, Friday's action increases the odds of a fed funds rate cut soon. The Fed's next scheduled rate-setting meeting is Sept. 18.
First Intermeeting Move Since 9/11
"Although recent data suggest that the economy has continued to expand at a moderate pace, the Federal Open Market Committee judges that the downside risks to growth have increased appreciably," the Fed said in a statement.
"This is effectively a move from a tightening bias to an easing bias," said economists at ING Bank.
The surprise move, the first intermeeting rate cut since the days following the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, comes at a time when a credit crunch threatens global financial markets and, in turn, the economy. Six years ago, however, the Fed lowered both the fed funds and discount rate targets.
"It's a good first step," said Lehman Brothers economist Drew Matus. "This is much more effective in the short term than fixing the federal funds rate," he added. Still, Lehman now expects the Fed to lower the fed funds rate by a half percentage point by the end of the year. Prior to Friday it had expected no change.
The Fed reiterated Friday that economic fundamentals remain sound. Recent data suggest the economy grew in excess of 4% in the second quarter and should expand around 2.5% in the third.
Still, the Fed did not address the question of whether risks to growth now matched or exceeded inflation risks. "I don't think they're downgrading inflation," Mr. Crandall said. "I think they didn't want to commit themselves."
Appendix：
Text of Fed Statement on Discount Rate
The following is the text of the Federal Reserve announcement on changes to its primary credit discount贴现 window facility工具 on Friday, Aug. 17
To promote the restoration复位 of orderly conditions in financial markets, the Federal Reserve Board approved temporary changes to its primary credit discount window facility. The Board approved a 50 basis point reduction in the primary credit rate to 5-3/4 percent, to narrow the spread between the primary credit rate and the Federal Open Market Committee’s target federal funds rate to 50 basis points. The Board is also announcing a change to the Reserve Banks’ usual practices to allow the provision预备 of term financing短期融资 for as long as 30 days, renewable by the borrower. These changes will remain in place until the Federal Reserve determines that market liquidity has improved materially. These changes are designed to provide depositories存放处 with greater assurance about the cost and availability of funding. The Federal Reserve will continue to accept a broad range of collateral for discount window loans, including home mortgages抵押人 and related assets资产. Existing collateral间接 margins will be maintained. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York and San Francisco.
Full text of the Fed’s accompanying statement:
Financial market conditions have deteriorated, and tighter credit conditions and increased uncertainty have the potential to restrain economic growth going forward. In these circumstances, although recent data suggest that the economy has continued to expand at a moderate pace, the Federal Open Market Committee judges that the downside risks to growth have increased appreciably. The Committee is monitoring the situation and is prepared to act as needed to mitigate减轻 the adverse effects on the economy arising from the disruptions失调 in financial markets.
Voting in favor of the policy announcement were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Michael H. Moskow; Eric Rosengren; and Kevin M. Warsh.
新东方赢得高分（from WSJ)
去年9月在纽约证交所上市的新东方教育科技（集团）公司(New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc., 简称：新东方)就实现了强劲的增长。其美国存托股票的首次公开募股价为15美元，而周四该股收于45.45美元。
本周初，新东方公布在截至2月28日的财季中实现净利润人民币6,530万元（合850万美元），是上年同期的6倍多。
美林(Merrill Lynch)分析师Mark Chang在上月的一份报告中称，新东方在中国的教育行业中处于有利位置。
该股是否还会继续走高呢？部分分析师对此持肯定态度，不过也有一些人认为该股距高点已经不远了。Mark Chang认为该股的合理价值为47美元。
随着股价的上涨，该股的市盈率也在大幅提高。根据标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)旗下NetAdvantage的数据，该股过去12个月的往续市盈率为78倍，是在美国上市的同行中最高的一个。许多在美国交易的中国股票都被认为股价过高，而它们的市盈率也仅是新东方的一半左右。
新东方成立于1993年，核心业务是英语培训和考试辅导，截至2月底共有754,300名学员。新东方品牌已进入中国34个城市，其规模令竞争对手望尘莫及。
目前新东方共有128所学校和学习中心。董事长兼首席执行长俞敏洪(Michael Yu)在周三的电话会议上表示，在6月1日开始的一年里，新东方还将开设四到五所新校。
分析师表示，该公司聘用富有激情的年轻教师带来的声誉推动了学员人数的增加。新东方的口译老师Forrest Wang说，教员人手一册教学指导，其中将幽默感和激情列为必备素质，这反映出新东方创始人俞敏洪推崇的教学风格。
俞敏洪毕业于北京大学英语系，通过兼职教英语获得一些额外收入。通过提问和讲笑话，他调动起了习惯于安静听课的中国学生的气氛。
新东方上市后，公司向表现优秀的教师奖励了股票，这种做法在中国学校中非常罕见。Forrest Wang说，教师的奖金直接同学生的评价挂钩，确保了最有吸引力的教师获得的奖金也最高。
雷曼兄弟亚洲投资有限公司(Lehman Brothers Asia)分析师石琳在2月份的研究报告中写道，新东方因其主动、充满激情、幽默和互动这些具有鲜明特色的教学方式而深受学生的欢迎。石琳认为新东方的内在价值为每股50美元。
新东方已经将培训课程扩大到韩语、法语和德语，并提供会计学方面的培训。美林预计，到5月份时，学员总数量将达到100万。雷曼兄弟称，按收入计，新东方在中国语言培训业务中排名第一，市场占有率至少为5.1%。石琳说，这个领域非常零散，共有约5万家公司在争夺生源。雷曼兄弟援引研究报告称，到2010年，这项业务的市场规模将达到39亿美元。
新东方不但已进入全国众多城市，而且财力雄厚，同时拥有这两方面优势的公司少之又少，因此新东方具有收购小公司及扩大连锁经营的潜力。新东方本周二表示，截至2月28日，共有现金和现金等价物4.434亿美元。
由于培训行业的进入门槛很低，新东方面临着激烈的竞争。与它实力最接近的竞争对手是非上市公司北京环球雅思学校(Beijing Global IELTS School)，该校主要为学生提供雅思考试的培训。环球雅思已在中国49个城市设有分校，但雷曼兄弟称，环球雅思的学员数量仅是新东方的五分之一。
尽管新东方在许多城市设有分校，但收入来源却比较集中。美林称，仅北京、上海、武汉和广州四个城市就占到公司总收入的60%以上。美林预计，随着新东方的大规模扩张，这四个城市所占收入的比例可能会在2008年降至50%以下。
分析师称，新东方还面临着一个机会：明年将在北京举行的夏季奥运会。他们称，因为外国人将会大量涌入，希望学习英语的中国人数量将会猛增。
在周三的业绩发布会上，俞敏洪强调了奥运会将带来的良好机遇。在奥运会期间，随着外国人和中国各地游客的涌入，北京可能会变得非常拥挤。新东方计划在北京郊区开设临时课堂，远离拥堵和喧嚣。这会带来额外的成本，但总的来说，奥运会将会增加学员的数量。
浙江大学教育学院教授吴华称，新东方已经建立了良好的信誉，语言培训领域的其他公司将发现很难超越新东方。吴华不持有新东方股票，与新东方也没有业务联系。(所谓的第三方)
Jason Leow
Steering Ford Through Fast Changes In China（form WSJ)
In this year's first six months, Ford's passenger-car joint venture, Changan Ford Mazda Automobile Co., reported a 57% wholesale sales gain over the year-earlier half to 93,587 units; sales were up 70% in the second quarter. In the same period, the American auto maker's wholly owned brands -- Ford, Lincoln, Volvo, Jaguar and Land Rover -- posted total retail sales in China of 93,206, 25% above a year ago.
Ford got a later start in China than some of its multinational rivals. General Motors Corp. signed a joint-venture agreement with its main Chinese partner in 1997. Ford's joint venture was established in 2001, but the company has moved to make up for lost time. In 2003, the first Ford cars, Fiestas, rolled off the assembly line at the joint-venture factory in Chongqing, in west-central China, that Ford operates with its Japanese partner Mazda Motor Corp. and state-controlled Chang‘an Automotive Group. The joint venture recently opened an engine plant in the eastern city of Nanjing, where Ford also has established a research-and-engineering center. Ford also makes commercial vehicles in a joint venture with Jiangling Motor Corp. in the southeastern city of Nanchang.
Mr. Cheng, born in 1950 in Taiwan, is a U.S. citizen and has a bachelor's degree in industrial engineering from Cornell University and a master's degree in business administration from Rutgers University. From 1972 and for many years thereafter, Mr. Cheng worked for AT&T in the U.S., Taiwan and China. He then worked for General Electric Co. in various executive positions, including as CEO of GE's China business. He joined Ford in 1998 and served for a year as the China operation's president and chief operating officer before being named chairman and CEO. He also is a vice president of Ford Motor.
Mr. Cheng spoke in his Shanghai office with Gordon Fairclough.
WSJ: What are the biggest challenges of managing a business in China?
Mr. Cheng: Because of China's size, managing here is much different than managing in a small market like Taiwan or the Philippines or even a region in North America. The diversity of language, culture, business practices and people's experiences is so great. You need a really deep understanding of these differences. Also, things are changing so fast. In China, GDP growth is 10% a year. You can't study something for six months before you come up with a recommendation. You have to run a major corporation, but you also need to be opportunistic and make quick decisions. In a market like this, you also really need to understand the regulations and politics and how they impact your business. Managers really need to understand the government's influence on the economic development model.
WSJ: What's changing in the auto industry in China?
Mr. Cheng: It can take two to three years to develop a new vehicle. So you really have to understand the people, their thought processes, their buying behavior, where these people came from and what they went through. It used to be, for Chinese people, a hatchback was not a real car. Everyone had to have a sedan. Now young people, especially women, like the hatchback with its extra room for people and things. People are also starting to gravitate to SUVs. The key for Ford is to anticipate what buying and behavior patterns are now and where they are going.
WSJ: What are the challenges of recruiting employees in China, where the modern auto industry is so young?
Mr. Cheng: Most of us [from the industrialized world] grew up with cars. We saw our parents change the oil; we rode in cars. But most of our employees have never driven a car. They didn't grow up around cars. Many of our engineers are very well educated, but they don't have a driver's license. We help our employees get driver's licenses, so they know about the products they are producing and selling. That way they will know about the expectations of Chinese customers. We encourage our employees to own cars. We offer incentives, employee discounts. We want them to know the product that they are developing, building, selling and servicing in China.
WSJ: What are the most important attributes of a good manager?
Mr. Cheng: The first thing I look for is confidence in their own abilities so that they will have the courage to try things, to make mistakes and learn from them. The second thing is, they need to be able to do things speedily. This is a very competitive environment. Third, they need to be able to take a very complex set of issues and condense it to the two or three core issues, get to the root causes and solve a problem. I want our employees to feel passionate about our products and about our industry.
WSJ: Foreign car manufacturers producing in China for the domestic market are required to form joint ventures with local players. How do you manage relations with your partners?
Mr. Cheng: The key really is to pick the right partner. You want someone who shares your sense of ethics. Not all state-owned enterprises are the same. You need to find out what their expectations are. Our measure of success is that the joint venture must be successful. For that to work, you need to find ways to allow the partners to resolve issues and problems in both formal and informal ways. You need to communicate continuously. We try to resolve problems based on facts, based on data, rather than on emotion.
WSJ: How do you recruit and motivate employees when Ford has had such well-publicized difficulties in the North American market?
Mr. Cheng: People here haven't lived through the business cycle. In Ford's 100 years of history, not every year is totally on the positive side of the ledger. We go through cycles. We had a great run in the 1980s and 1990s. For a number of reasons, we're now in the difficult situation we're in. We're confident in [Ford Motor CEO] Alan Mulally and the rest of the leadership team. We'll overcome these challenges. The corporation has the confidence that we in China have the right strategy, the right team and the right products to continue to gain market share and have profit growth.
WSJ: What's the best career advice you ever got?
Mr. Cheng: It was from Jim McNerney [currently chairman and chief executive of Boeing Co.] when we were at General Electric. He told me: 'The easiest way to get fired from GE is not to do what Jack Welch [until 2001, GE's chairman and CEO] tells you to do. The second easiest way to get fired from GE is to do exactly what Jack Welch tells you to do if you know he's wrong.' When someone gives you something to do and they are right, you do it. If someone gives you an order and you blindly follow it, then you're not really doing your job.
Gordon Fairclough
“智子疑邻”与“小马过河”(From wall street journal)
中国财政部5月30日凌晨突然宣布大幅度提高印花税，导致当日上证指数大幅度下挫6.5%，收于4053点。6月1日上海股市继续下跌109点，收于4000点。这似乎印证了QFII和格林斯潘等人的观点。说实在的，当看到QFII和格林斯潘的观点时，我也很生气，因为我那时还是满仓。随着股市的调整和自己帐户资金的大幅度减少，我逐渐冷静下来，反省自己的观点和操作。冷静的反省，使我联想起了中国两个寓言故事。
第一个寓言故事是《智子疑邻》，出自中国古代思想家韩非子的文章《说难》。故事内容是：宋国有个富人，一天大雨把他家的 淋坏了。他儿子说：“不修好，一定会有人来偷窃。”邻居家的一位老人也这样说。晚上，富人家里果然丢失了很多东西。富人觉得他儿子很聪明，而怀疑是邻居家老人偷的。这个故事在中国可以说是家户喻晓，2003年还被选为全国高考作文题目。富人对“ 被雨淋坏导致财物失窃”一事的判断，是受感情亲疏的影响，认为自己的儿子很聪明，却怀疑邻居老人是偷窃的对象，这样的认识是不客观的，也很难认识到事实真相。
实际上，我们对市场的判断与观点会受到自己当时是做多还是做空的影响。如果是持仓，那么在潜意识里肯定是支持多方的观点，如果是空仓看到空方的观点就会很高兴，而对整个市场的实际情况反而缺乏冷静和客观的判断。我想要说的第一个观点是：要想获得正确的认识，必须尽量少带感情色彩，才能理智客观公正地认识事物。
第二个寓言故事是《小马过河》，具体出处我不知道，只记得小学课本有这篇文章。故事的内容是：老马吩咐小马把半袋麦子驮到磨坊。在半路上，一条小河挡住了去路。能不能过河，小马很为难了，于是跑去询问在河边吃草的老牛。老牛说：“水很浅，刚没小腿。”小马听了老牛的话，立刻跑到河边，准备过去。突然从树上跳下一只松鼠，拦住他大叫：“小马！别过河，河水会淹死你的！昨天，我的一个伙伴就掉在这条河里淹死了！”小马连忙收住脚步，不知道怎么办好。于是跑回家去问妈妈。妈妈问：“怎么回来啦？”小马难为情地说：“有一条河挡住了去路，牛伯伯说很浅，但松鼠说河水很深，还淹死过他的伙伴呢。”妈妈亲切地对小马说：“孩子，光听别人说，自己不动脑筋，不去试试，是不行的，你去试一试，就会明白了。”小马回到河边，迈起腿趟过了小河，河水刚刚淹过小马的腰，既不像老牛说的那样浅，也不像松鼠说的那样深。
在投资过程中，我们经常会受到他人的干扰。相信不少投资者都有过类似的经历，明明持有一只很好的股票，却因为看到或听到别人的一些观点，中途改变原来的计划卖出股票，等股票大幅口升后才后悔没有坚持当初的观点。记住,别人并不能代替自己，不管他是华人首富李嘉诚还是预测亚洲金融风暴出名的谢国忠，不同的人对同一件事情有不同的看法，实际上在任何时候都有人看空有人看多，有人看空才有人卖，有人看多才有人买。我想说的第二个观点是：自己的决策不要被他人所左右，要培养独立思考的能力，相信自己才能获得成功。
What Your Portfolio Really Needs(From wall street journal)
These days, what happens on Wall Street doesn't stay there. Gyrating U.S. stocks affect Europe, Asia and elsewhere, as has been painfully evident recently to investors seeking shelter from the markets' torrential storms.
So why diversify? Two words: risk control.
Diversification keeps several pots simmering at once. It's a curious fact that adding riskier assets to a portfolio actually makes it safer. The key is how much of each ingredient you use. Ultimately that depends on your taste, but if Julia Child had been an investment adviser, she would have told you that a little spice goes a long way. Putting 5% of a portfolio in emerging-market stocks and 5% in real estate, for example, has been shown to boost returns and lower volatility.
It turns out that when viewed over many years, markets aren't so intertwined after all. Stocks in the U.S. and other developed countries take independent paths, and emerging economies are in another orbit. Stocks have even looser ties to bonds, real estate, commodities and other alternative investments.
Your options, however, seem endless. Some tap vital markets; others are just clever marketing. Confused? Here's what you really need to diversify, what's nice to have and what you can do without.
-- Need to have. Stocks: Fundamentals apply. Own shares of large and small companies -- only now when you buy locally, think globally. The big companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, for example, generate almost half of their sales outside of the U.S.
With a conservative allocation of 60% stocks, for example, give brand-name S&P 500 stocks 35% of the portfolio and small caps 5%. Then earmark 15% to an international index fund that holds companies of all sizes, plus another 5% to a geographically dispersed emerging-markets fund.
Bonds: The subprime mortgage mess is tainting bonds. Avoid trouble by investing in U.S. government bonds and other top-quality issues. Bonds provide regular income, so they're a terrific diversifier, and over time show decent returns. Long-term Treasurys, for example, have delivered three-fourths of the S&P 500's 11.7% annualized gain since 1989 with about 60% of stocks' volatility, says Ibbotson Associates.
Bond prices fall when interest-rates rise, and vice versa. Longer-dated bonds are susceptible to rate changes, while short-term issues are insulated. Cover yourself with a 'laddered' strategy of one-, three-, five- and 10-year debt. Consider Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, which unlike most bonds will hold their value as the cost of living climbs.
'Have the core of your portfolio in stock index funds and bond index funds,' says John Bogle, founder of mutual-fund giant Vanguard Group. 'That's the way you will capture the largest percentage of returns that a business earns.'
-- Nice to have. Real estate: Home ownership is probably enough real estate for most of us. But property does act differently from other investments. A 5% stake in a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund that owns real-estate stocks or real-estate investment trusts should do the job. Again, think globally -- the world is getting wealthier, and as the saying goes, they're not making any more land.
-- Don't really need. Sector funds: Buying a surging sector is tempting, but such bets can turn against you quickly. 'Be involved in profitable businesses around the world regardless of what's hot and what's not,' says Kacy Gott, a financial adviser in San Francisco. 'Don't chase sectors. That's not for investors; that's for traders.'
Gold: It insures against financial catastrophe and marches to its own drum. But as an investment, short-term risk is high and long-term reward is marginal. If you want gold, buy jewelry.
Other commodities: This is a controversial call, for good reason. The price of so-called hard assets is soaring. China, India and other fast-growing countries need oil, natural gas, metals and materials to fuel development. Demand for agricultural products is also high.
You can play this trend with funds or ETFs that own a basket of commodities, and yes, you'll get diversification. But in truth, you'll do fine without direct exposure.
'Commodities are way overhyped as an asset class,' says Jeremy Siegel, a Wharton School finance professor. Instead, he'd buy stock in oil producers, mining companies and other businesses that stand to profit from this global boom.
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